Prediction,

I like this fight, great match up!

This is a real challange for Kovalev, a test of exactly what he has left and how much he wants to remain champion, and it is the opportunity Eleider Alvarez has been waiting and working for.

Outside of Andre Ward, Kovalev is unbeaten, Alvarez is, outright unbeaten, this is a high end world level fight.

You could argue, that because Alvarez is unbeaten, and has been through less in his career, he might have the stronger desire at this point, the hungrier, and that this is his time, on the other hand, Isaac Chilemba, Jean Pascal, had a much harder time in defeat against Kovalev than Alvarez, especially Pascal, and that could contribute towards the argument that Alvarez isn't on Kovalev's level really, and Kovalev still has enough to beat him.

In terms of age, there isn't anything in it really, Kovalev (35) is slightly older than Alvarez (34), but I think Kovalev is a relatively old 35, and Alvarez is a relatively young 34, based on their careers so far, and based on Kovalev as a fighter. Because Alvarez is 34, there is time pressure on him, if he doesn't win this, even if he does well, he might not get another shot for a while, at which point it could be too late, especially if he gets hurt against Kovalev, is that pressure? Is that motivation?, it is interesting, but ideally, a fighter at Alvarez's career stage would be a good 5 years younger, if there is one thing you don't want to lose in boxing, it is youth, on the other hand, Alvarez has his chance in this fight, he is ready, and if he is a top fighter in his division, he might well win. I think Kovalev is steadily but surely dipping fight by fight, getting slightly worse each time, he was so strong, skilled, and dangerous a few years ago, that he would have to decline rapidly to not be a threat, but on a relative scale, when you compare him to the likes of Dmitry Bivol, it doesn't look good, and in this fight, he faces a challenge, a quite possibly very tough test.

I think beating Sergey Kovalev is like running a marathon in under 2 hours, 10 minutes, it is simple, you know how to do it, but easy, it is certainly not, and only elite, elite runners manage it. If you can take Kovalev past 6 rounds, and not be in a very bad way mentally or physically, he is very beatable, if you force him to fight on the inside, hit him to the body, you've got him, but it is easier said than done, Bernard Hopkins landed his only few punches in rounds 7 and 8, as Kovalev faded ever so slightly, but couldn't stop Kovalev resting and controlling the pace, couldn't deter Kovalev, at all, and Pascal was on the absolute edge when Kovalev was near to finishing him, but against Andre Ward, Kovalev was probably winning after 6 rounds in both fights, took a 3 round lead for sure in both fights, but after 6 rounds, in both fights, he faded badly, got stopped the second time, had the fight beaten out of him. It is easy to know how to beat Kovalev, but to do it, it has taken Andre Ward so far.

The question is, can Alvarez challange Kovalev and seriously compete for 4-6 rounds?, can he land some body shots early?, can he stop Kovalev from winning the fight just by wearing him down in the first 6 rounds? And ultimately, can Alvarez see out 6, and not be in such a bad way that Kovalev's fatigue doesn't matter? If Alvarez can, then he will win, he won't beat the same Kovalev that Ward beat, but not a shadow of the former Kovalev either, and what an achievement it would be, good luck to him, but I do not think he will win.

I could be wrong, but I just don't think Alvarez is top 3 in his division, I don't think he compares to Bivol, Beterbiev, I don't think he is as good as Ward was, and although he has proven to be a good fighter so far, I just think against Kovalev, he will find his level, and that level, is not top level, or just below. Kovalev has a lot of weaknesses, but he also has devastating power, he might be the hardest hitter at 175, he has a lot of skill, good, long punches, his jab is strong, clean, accurate, and if he can control the pace, he either knocks you out, or by the time he starts to tire, he's already beaten his opponent out of the contest, and they can't stop him taking rests, working at the pace he wants to. I don't think Alvarez has the skill, or the power to negate or even work around the Kovalev jab, and I think for the first few rounds, Kovalev will dominate on the jab, and as soon as Alvarez takes more risks, gets slightly frustrated maybe, Kovalev can time that long right hand, set up his opponent, and I think he's certainly capable of drawing Alvarez onto one of those potential fight finishers.

I think Kovalev knocks Alvarez out in 5 rounds.

I think Fields stopped that a punch too late, he is a good ref, but I thought it was clear that Kovalev was finished after the second knockdown, he wasn't responding, Fields even had to encourage him to stop walking into the corner for respite.

I think Kovalev must retire now, he took serious damage here, unless he wants to continue his career at a lower level, which he probably won't, he will get battered again, and nobody likes to see great fighters decline, get hurt and beaten up by fighters who aren't necessarily better than them. Kovalev has had a great career, two time world champion, he has nothing to prove.

Alvarez proved to be underrated, I was very impressed, he has a great chin, he can take a shot, he proved that in round 4, took those shots very well, and Kovalev is a monstrous puncher, but also, his movement, jab, brilliant, and starting off with the right to the body was a good tactic against Kovalev. Alvarez has power, we knew that, we knew Kovalev could be hurt, doesn't have a good chin, but Alvarez timed that first shot perfectly, was precise.

Bivol vs Alvarez seems logical now.