Tue, 2020-10-27 15:32
This could be a 50/50 fight, Campbell is declining at 33, Garcia has potential, but this is a massive step up for Garcia, and it's a question of whether it's a fight too soon for him. The activity aspect is interesting, Garcia fought in February, even a 1st round KO is better than nothing, Campbell hasn't fought in 17 months, but he went 12 against Lomachenko in his last fight, but Garcia hasn't been a full round in 21 months, hasn't been 3 rounds in 2 years. Campbell is the more experienced fighter, Garcia had a lot of amateur bouts, fought good fighters, but I think Campbell was the better amateur given he won medals at world tournaments. Garcia has been 10 rounds, but not 12, Campbell has fought Linares, Lomachenko, beat Mendy, but Garcia has made big statements in his last 2 fights, Duno and Fonseca were both supposed to be fairly tough tests. Garcia can hurt Campbell, there is no question about that, he's proven to have power in his last few fights, and Campbell doesn't have a good chin, Campbell has defensive ability, but can be caught, but the question is how Garcia builds on it if he does hurt him, can he find the balance between punching himself out, and letting Campbell off the hook? Garcia hasn't fought a southpaw in 3 years, he'll sparr southpaws, but that will take some adapting to.
I think Campbell will be the busier in the early rounds, he won't be the aggressor, but I think he'll out work Garcia on the back foot, he'll throw combinations, Garcia will struggle with the speed and variety, I think Garcia will be patient, won't get frustrated, but will struggle with the angles, will struggle to make Campbell work. I think Garcia will swing the fight in his favour in the mid rounds, will land a counter, will hurt Campbell, but Campbell is durable, and I don't think he will finish him in the first time he hurts him, he'll be able to get into range and let his hands go if Campbell is on unsteady legs, but Campbell is too experienced not to cover up and see the shots, and he won't be static on the ropes unless Garcia lands a sickening body shot which incapacitates him, which I don't think he will. A danger for Campbell is that Garcia is a defensive puncher, and if he lands a counter off the back foot, which Campbell walks into, he could be out cold. Both are more likely to make a mistake in the late rounds, but that's more risky for Campbell, because Garcia can hurt him more easily, and I think he'll have enough in the tank to stop Campbell, Campbell will have less resistance and be more unsteady than if he's hurt earlier in the fight.
I think Garcia stops Campbell in 10 rounds, I think Campbell will be ahead on the cards, I would not be at all surprised if Campbell won a UD or if he stops Garcia by breaking him down with his consistent attacking to head and body, but I think Garcia will stop him late.
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